Vince provides more detail about the new show. Starts at 2PM Central starting January 11, 2010. David joins Vince and highlights several stocks which are showing a pattern of rollover in the first quarter. ANF is an example of accumulation in an uptrend. (mp3)

David focuses on oil. Vince noted some technicals(crack spread) indicates a potential price rise. Political and military implications of current events may drive prices higher in 2Q10. Semiconductors(USD) is another sector showing on the neural net screens. Could be a false breakout. Volume spike after pattern completes.(mp3)

Gold gets the focus by using NEM as example. GLD and NEM are hugging key support lines. Showing Gartley pattern with final correction to 100 on GLD. Pattern says may be short term trade to the upside. Potential gold low at 800 in 2010. Potential cup pattern forming at 107 base. David uses monthly chart to project a consolidation to 990 area. (mp3)

FDX and transportation sector are showing weakness and may take a break in 1Q10. Transports lead Industrials in the Dow Theory. David looks at US 10 year interest rates and thinks inflation will be a problem in 1H10. Vince and David agree that inflation is an issue for the next two years. Long term rates will approach 5%. Taxes will increase in the next few years. Equities will trade in a range until this is sorted out. David has new blog almost ready. Check it out. (mp3)

Next show Monday January 4th, 2010

Oliver highlights technology and the effect inflation has on technology companies. Market is now anticipating this as shown by the breakout of the QQQQs. In periods of negative real interest rates the tech and NASDAQ outperformed SP500 by 50%. Point at which interest rates are increased will determine length of the rally. Entry point for equities will depend on this week’s action. SOX could move to 390. (mp3)

Vince and Oliver focus on bonds and the interest rate cycle. We are at turning point of 30 year cycle. Somewhere within the next two years. Yields will rise and therefore bonds will fall. Fed can influence the short term rates Pearlfisher is now pfiii.com .Sugar gets the once over. Has broken 60 year trend. Breakout in June and now another new level. Is an indirect play on inflation. India has become net importer now and put price caps on domestic prices. Cocoa and coffee were rising but some market manipulations with low volumes can impact prices. Cotton is moving in parallel with the other soft commodities. Momentum if favor of higher prices between demand and supply issues(bad harvest, etc) (mp3)

Copper, the poor man’s gold, is becoming detached from fundamentals. This is a clear example that inflation is the driver not demand. Speculators may be driving up prices in a move on shorts. Gold’s 1070 level is major support. Stop loss at 1030. The overall picture implies increased volitilty and therefore shorter timeframes for trades. Housing sector shows no signs of a recovery. Toll Brothers(TOL) is a leading stock in the sector. Still forming bottom for 2 years. (mp3)

Oliver previews the 2010 forecast. Interest rate increases may come in Europe before the US. Unlikely that emerging market repeat this year’s performance. Fed interest rate policy is the key (mp3)

Vince talks about his future role and how he will use the radio and the Internet to continue educating traders. He explains the design philosophy behind the new structure that he and Oliver had been working on the last six months. Reinforces the theme that the show will have the same goals. OTA is still the leading vendor and Vince recommends them. Each trader is unique, therefore your investments must be unique to you. (first_mp3)(second_mp3)

Vince continues to detail the changes to the show coming in 2010 and the training classes that VInce will offer. David joins the show and discusses NEM which is showing a minor rally in gold prices. Others AEM, CDE, and AUY. David is seeing increasing volume as price hits resistance. Big money is accumulating at these levels. David says to continue holding coal. (third_mp3) (fourth_mp3)

Oliver discusses what the spread between 3 month and 10 year US debt means. Market is pricing in an interest rate increase within 6 months. The dollar/gold relationship from the 70’s is returning.  Gold peaked in the 80’s before the Fed raised interest rates to create a positive real interest rate. This caused a huge rally in the dollar which peaked in 1985. If model holds this time, won’t see gold downturn till 2015. (mp3)

Dollar/yen is a lead indicator for bonds. High correlaton with 10 year treasury. 200 day MA is 98. Should stay the same for a while. Sugar still trending higher and has a breakout pattern. Now trading outside 60 year trading range. US must watch that India does not reimport inflation to us. Rice and sugar are 3 month lead indicator for inflation. Hold sugar for now. Not sure where peak is, put stop loss at 24(Futures price). (mp3)

Bonds are at a turning point for 30 year interest rate cycle. 10 year yields in neutral territory. When 30 year yields approach 5%, big turn around for interest rates. This will impact bond prices for the next 30 years. Equities in the short term, next couple of trading days have been historically strong. NASDAQ is making new highs. Outlook moved to neutral. Could be start of minor rally. Semis and technology have an easy way to pass on price increases in an inflationary environment. Consumer cyclicals are starting to break out. General theme - companies that can raise prices in an infaltionary environment.

Breakout from Dow 10500 with top at 11000. New website is pfiii.com. Seeing end of year normal turmoil. Gold will continue to advance. Serious headwinds for equities. Sharp sell off in six months. Lots of year end window dressing from fund manager. Sentiment indicators are near top. Look for Pearl Fisher year end forecast by end of January.  Maintain down side protection. (mp3)

New winning number is 367714

Michael Cox, former chief economist for the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, explains how inflation is measured impacts Fed policy.  Government entities have no profit motive and therefore may deliver outcomes that are suboptimal. Michael suggests that inflation is not inevitable. Currently, the Fed is trying to stimulate money supply and would welcome some inflation as a sign the economy is improving. (mp3)

Current methodology tries to measure prices for 8,000 different goods and services. Some goods don’t get into the CPI until the majority of price has declined. For example, cell phones didn’t get included until price had declined to current prices. Before creation of Fed, economy cycled between inflation and deflation. Michael discusses the pros/cons of inflation.(mp3)

Fed has to balance inflation, unemployment, and GDP. Natural rate of unemployment is 4%. GDP growth rate of 3%.Fed has not been able to increase M2. Banks have the money but the banks are holding their reserves. The reserve to deposit ratio is now 14%, normally 1%. Michael tracks the number of man hours required to purchase a good/service. This incorporates the productivity gains in the price. (mp3)

Michael defines money. It is a measure of value that can be exchanged easily. Fed was designed to take the printing press out of the hands of government. Government can pay it’s debts by taxing, selling debt, or printing money. The Fed as an institution does not benefit from printing money, so has no incentive to print money. Solution to current recession is for people to lend and borrow. Current problem is trust/confidence in the future. (mp3)

New winning number is 367748

Curtis Faith (Trading Your Gut) joins Vince to discuss using your right brain as well as your left brain to make trading decisions. Curtis has evolved from robotic trading to intuitive trading. Intuitions and emotions are two different things when trading. Genetics play a role in trading. The natural reaction to fear is avoidance which is not helpful in trading. New traders provide trading opportunities because they are emotional traders and are making mistakes. (mp3)

Vince points out that new traders have a lack of self-awareness which prevents you from seeing the truth in the markets. Build trading plan with left brain. Use the right brain to pick entries and exits. Use intuition to signal divergences from what is “normal”. There are some people who do not have the talent/skills to trade. It is hard for intelligent people to accept being wrong. (mp3)

Vince and Curtis explain why pilots make good traders because they have to train for the worse and make decisions in uncertain environments. You have to be confident in your skills to pull the trigger. Right brain analysis must be used in a left brain model of how the market works. Train right brain to make decisions quickly. Use left brain to confirm with fundamentals. (mp3)

Curtis explains how visual perception bias can get you in trouble. Automating trades is a little more difficult because you can’t program in right brain intuition. Recency bias makes traders give more weight to recent events. Multiple time frame analysis helps to minimize this type of bias. Most systems have not proven to be successful. You have to trade YOUR system. (mp3)

New winning number is 367722.

Vince is in Houston on Saturday giving a preso at the OTA office.

David and Vince update us SGG and the run in sugar. ADM screened on David’s neural net run last night. Possible move in commodities. David sees this as a rally to retest old highs with moderate pullback. This will setup Gartley pattern to upside. David illuminates the view that the retailers(DLTR) may be breaking out. Xmas sales could be the catalyst. Screens are showing SKIL as breakout candidate. (mp3)

SKIL volume increasing now. Companies are substituting software for employees. Should benefit from this trend. MDRX also showed up on the screens. On four separate places, fib levels are converging on the current price level. As well as the sector is advancing. Should see the same pattern in the index or ETF for that sector. David studies opportunities from top down (mkt->sector->stock) (mp3)

David reinforces that each investment is unique, but the process to evaluate opportunities is the same. Vince discusses Dr. Elder’s example of three traders that tried to copy someone else. All three failed. David gives each trade 5 trading days to start to move in his forecasted direction. He has no problem selling when the conditions change. (mp3)

Vince and David discuss techniques to ease the decision to execute a trade. By taking every trade that matches entry criteria with a trade plan that has a positive expectancy for profit, you minimize procrastination to enter trades. This also minimizes the emotion/drama experienced by new traders. Vince points out that automated trading eliminates the emotions but does not relieve you of hard work required to be successful. David uses FUQI to demonstrate the advanced fibonacci techniques for multiple convergence analysis. (mp3)

The new winning number is 367680