Vince talks with MSGT Claudia Weir of the US Air Force Academy Band. Check the website for upcoming dates in Texas. Free tickets are available for the Bass Hall seats. Varied types of music will be played.Richard Brady from the Loss Recovery Center. Vince gets an update on SEC litigation. Money makes people do dumb things. Richard has called a psychologist to explain behaviour. Nest egg recovery from investment advisors who may have invested their clients money improperly. Suitability is based on net worth, ability to understand the risks. These risks must be clear and cogent. Must be right for that person. Alternative investment label is a red flag in itself. Auction rate securities were sold as CD alternatives. They froze up and locked up peoples IRA. Life settlements get the once over.

Richard from lossrecoverycenter.com continues his expose on the latest misfits in the investment world. Some red flags: regular statements?, writing checks to the wrong company?, handwritten receipts?, special deals outside of the broker?, excessive trading?. Do not be afraid to ask. Extensive discussion of private equity deals. Understand the motivation of the advisor. Get a second opinion. Be careful of affinity fraud, like Madoff did. Biggest frauds by church members.Size of firms is not a function of size.

Oliver joins for a peak at the PearlFisher newsletter. More confirmation of positions. Next six weeks could see accleration of trend. Oil breaking to upside to accelerate inflationary trend. Coming up on top of trading range. Sugar has found bottom. Not in portfolio because gold, oil, and small caps are better plays. Main theme negative real interest rates. Fed stops buying end of March. Once they stop will have selloff in bonds. Euro to 1.40 and then retreat. Calm weekend. Record winter this year has impacted retail sales.

Oliver and Vince discuss interest rates and the impact on bonds. May have a counter trend rally in the summer. Oil has high intraday trading range. Seasonality is over and then a turning point in oil and the Euro.

Oliver discusses the effect from going positive on the Year to Date return. Institutions are forced to participate in the market. Consumer confidence is an important indicator of consumer spending. Has been going sideways. Stocks and consumer confidence should move in tandem, they are not now. Oil is sitting on 50 and 100 day moving average. Next week may see support for the euro. Stocks are up next. Negative real interest rates encourages M&A activity and small caps. Small caps should outperform in the short term. Retail Food stocks have broken out. Cyclical stocks are outperforming. Boost from pent up demand this winter. NEM will benefit here. Semis and tech stocks are favored here. Dollar vs Euro has strong support at 1.35.Up leg for the next couple of months.

Dan Cofal explains the evolution of the name the Wall Street Shuffle. He continues explaining the content and format of his show. Little humor, little poiltics. Predicts higher taxes and inflation require large returns. Relates his experience with gold. Suggests that possession of gold may protect over the long term. Diversification with silver. Gold is world currency. Charged off debt vehiles are discussed. High rate of return but not available to the retail market. Resale market carries risk of fraudulent portfolios.

Dan and Vince talk about NRMH and it's purpose for his business. Seven large companies in the segment. PRAA is an example. Earnings in the sector are growing quickly. People are keeping car loans current instead of the mortgage. Credit card bubble came and went when people changed their attitude about credit. They have given up on their home as an ATM. In this market, having a good advisor is important. Suitability requires knowledge of the product. That's why bonds are not a good idea here. Vince shares what it takes to be a trader. Dan suggests it takes a light touch.

Matthew from Collective2.com joins Vince for an update.It is a clearinghouse of trading systems. Auditor and reporter for systems results. Can also autotrade your account. Collective2 now has all asset classes. Matthew explains how to use the "Grid". Systems are ranked by how the system performs. Famous system developers have no incentive to be audited. They have a brand name to protect. Results are based on what you order on a given day, not what you said you ordered. Collective2 collects results from actual fills.

PearlFisher is adding positions. Check the newsletter for details. Matthew makes the point there is no holy grail. Figure out what your objective is. Use the Dashboard feature to see reviews of the system. Start small and be prepared to lose. Vince relates a funny story about trading in demo mode. The system is only as good as the last trade. Matthew has a theory that markets change just like an arms race. Things that are working will stop working. Collective2 allows you to see which systems are working in the current market. New autotrade feature will allow you to specify the amount of risk per trade. Forum can provide resources to develop systems. Vince updates on the PearlFisher position changes.

Vince and Bill talk about Roth IRA conversions. You have to examine your situation to see if they make sense for you. Bill explains what a separate account is and why it is important for your broker to have one of these. Prevents commingling of assets should the bank fail.  Bill mentions that all their puts have been closed. Bill is  anticipating a rally into the Spring. Vince will be presenting four things you need in your trading plans.

Jack joins Vince to talk about the new trading options available. You need something that is not correlated to equity.Jack mentions that you can trade the noise in futures. Buy and Hold does not work in commodities. Need active manager to take advantage of market moves. jack suggest that four or more advisors of different styles should be used to eliminate bias in the portfolio. ETFs are trading futures. GLD has no physical gold in the portfolio. Jack cautions that there are high priced risk takers out there. Trading is hard work. Be careful of option traders. You have to understand what they are trading. Jack has max drawdown of 25%.

Consumer confidence took a hit as predicted last week. Oliver observes that there is a strong link between confidence and the market. Divergence over the last several weeks. Expectation was that confidence would be up in line with the rise in the market. Last week in February is historically not a good month. Will use this opportunity to add to positions. Fundamentals suggest move up in the next several weeks. VIX has resistance around 30. Currently about 23. Could retest low at 17.Inflation is still on the horizon. Oil has seen seasonal low in February. Then run to July - August. Oil could get to 100 by June. Copper is tied to inflation. Copper inventories are very high. Makes for limited upside for copper. Cotton is breaking out. Emerging market demand is driving prices higher. India has 12% inflation now. Gold is a standard because it started as a currency. It is trying to break resistance and finding support at the 200 day moving average. Support at 1070. Wheat has good long run fundamentals. Big demand from large traders.

Vince suggest that we could see some more pullback this week. PearlFisher timeframes are 6 months or longer. Yen/dollar ratio is good indicator for bond yields. Japan now the largest holder of US debt. Fed will raise rates sometime this year. Bonds will react negatively. Palladium/gold correlation exists. Palladium has already moved ahead of the 50 day MA. SHould be bullish for gold prices. Bonds continue to decline. Asian markets are not performing as well as Europe. Chinese banks are tightening credit. Euro at major resistance. Dollar may fall for the next several weeks. Dollar will trade in a tight range for the rest of the year. Forecast still in place for 5-10% decline for the year. Preso on Thursday will focus on the next decade and the opportunities.

Carley Garner joins Vince and explains commodities. Carley explains her journey into commodities. Emotions are the key to trading commodities. Reading books will not make you a trader.The new book is for traders new to commodities. It's focus is about preparation before the trade. Explains the different type of commodities. Know the product you are trading. She trades SP and Treasuries futures contracts. Futures are 24/7. Depending on your personality and how close to the fire you want to get. Short options are a good way to start. Mini grains give you the feel without the risk. She recommends using someone with access to the floor in Chicago. She sells the option and if trade works out, she keeps the premium. Risk management is secret to commodities. Futures are taxed 60% long term/40% short term. Long term rate is currently 15%.(mp3)

Carley continues to talk about the amount of capital to invest in commodities. Max of 20% of your portfolio. Managed futures are a way to begin trading. The broker can direct your trades to ensure minimum risk. Trading on leverage makes it different than stocks. This is an active investment. You need to trade the account. Make sure there is adequate liquidity. Lumber is not a good market to trade for this reason. Corn and soybean, oil, gold and silver are liquid minis. Sugar is discussed. Option buying may make sense hear. She recommends an options strategy to play the downside. Gold may be below $950 by June. Fundamentals suggest this may be a top. Selling crude calls here. Selling options acts as a hedge. Keep your emotions out of the trade. (mp3)